{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "method": "Unweighted mean of one or two per-observation rates; technical corrections replace original technical cells; exact rational arithmetic.",
  "cost_assumptions": "November costs average reported-usage estimates for one 44-case observation at official current tariffs; stand-alone diagnostics are excluded from costs and quality; missing usage is excluded. These are estimates, not invoices. The original 21 retain historical campaign tariffs and River owner scenarios, including known retries. Some estimates have incomplete recorded usage. The six additional estimates use official current API rates as of 2026-10-30; gpt-6.1-terra covers complete recorded usage. claude-haiku-5-5, mistral-large-4, grok-4.7, GLM-5.3, moonshotai/Kimi-K3 cover retained recorded usage only; missing usage is excluded. All costs are estimates, not invoices. For the original 21 only: River uses owner-selected $0.12/$0.01/$0.50 per million input/cached-input/output tokens; ranges compare hypothetical all-cached versus no-cache usage. Other estimates retain campaign tariffs.",
  "models": [
    {
      "model": "gpt-6-astra",
      "average_quality_percent": "96.6%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 1827,
        "denominator": 1892
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gpt-6-astra",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "238.130875",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "238.130875",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "gemini-4-argon",
      "average_quality_percent": "95.5%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 21,
        "denominator": 22
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gemini-4-argon",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "94.566744",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "94.566744",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
      "average_quality_percent": "95.5%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 21,
        "denominator": 22
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gpt-6.1-sol",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "52.671586",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "52.671586",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "gpt-6.1-terra",
      "average_quality_percent": "86.4%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 19,
        "denominator": 22
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gpt-6.1-terra",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "6.108786",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "6.108786",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 1
    },
    {
      "model": "claude-fable-5-1",
      "average_quality_percent": "80.5%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 3045,
        "denominator": 3784
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "claude-fable-5-1",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "192.630185",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "192.630185",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
      "average_quality_percent": "54.5%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "98.9%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 6,
        "denominator": 11
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 87,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "153.684212",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "153.684212",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "gemini-3.8-flash",
      "average_quality_percent": "45.3%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 39,
        "denominator": 86
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gemini-3.8-flash",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "29.0916735",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "29.0916735",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
      "average_quality_percent": "44.3%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "92.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 39,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 81,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "20.309033",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "20.309033"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "gpt-6-sol",
      "average_quality_percent": "44.3%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "89.8%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 39,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 79,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gpt-6-sol",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "74.553171",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "74.553171",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "grok-4.7",
      "average_quality_percent": "33.3%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "100.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 3
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "grok-4.7",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "77.661408",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "77.661408",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 1
    },
    {
      "model": "muse-wonder-1.0",
      "average_quality_percent": "26.5%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "56.4%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 91,
        "denominator": 344
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 97,
        "denominator": 172
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "muse-wonder-1.0",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "52.067637",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "52.067637",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "GLM-5.3",
      "average_quality_percent": "16.7%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "88.9%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 6
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 8,
        "denominator": 9
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "GLM-5.3",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "7.820048928",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "7.820048928",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 1
    },
    {
      "model": "zai-org/GLM-5.3-Flash",
      "average_quality_percent": "14.8%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "77.3%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 13,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 17,
        "denominator": 22
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "zai-org/GLM-5.3-Flash",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.18880107",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.20868609",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "nvidia/GLM-5.2-NVFP4-262K",
      "average_quality_percent": "13.6%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "71.6%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 3,
        "denominator": 22
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 63,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "nvidia/GLM-5.2-NVFP4-262K",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.3451353",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.7250116",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "muse-spark-1.3",
      "average_quality_percent": "10.2%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "42.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 9,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 37,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "muse-spark-1.3",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "46.821199625",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "46.821199625",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "Qwen/Qwen3.8-27B-FP8",
      "average_quality_percent": "3.4%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "3.4%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 3,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 3,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "Qwen/Qwen3.8-27B-FP8",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.29128106",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "2.52077547",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash",
      "average_quality_percent": "2.3%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "18.4%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 43
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 695,
        "denominator": 3784
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.437959705",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "2.90048796",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731",
      "average_quality_percent": "2.3%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "5.7%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 1,
        "denominator": 44
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 5,
        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.3338015",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "2.54243925",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "moonshotai/Kimi-K3",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "43.2%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 0,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 19,
        "denominator": 44
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "moonshotai/Kimi-K3",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "28.9800438",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "28.9800438",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 1
    },
    {
      "model": "gpt-6-luna",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "21.5%",
      "quality_rate": {
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        "denominator": 1
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      "goal_rate": {
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        "denominator": 880
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "gpt-6-luna",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "1.42",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.42",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
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    {
      "model": "Qwen/Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8",
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      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "17.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 0,
        "denominator": 1
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      "goal_rate": {
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        "denominator": 88
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "Qwen/Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-FP8",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.419280145",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.95993624",
        "incomplete_usage": false,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
      },
      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "nvidia/Kimi-K2.6-NVFP4",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "16.1%",
      "quality_rate": {
        "numerator": 0,
        "denominator": 1
      },
      "goal_rate": {
        "numerator": 609,
        "denominator": 3784
      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "nvidia/Kimi-K2.6-NVFP4",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.157862835",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.00285627",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
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      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "Qwen/Qwen3.5-397B-A17B-FP8",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "6.8%",
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        "numerator": 0,
        "denominator": 1
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        "denominator": 44
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      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "Qwen/Qwen3.5-397B-A17B-FP8",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.19456902",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.35832249",
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        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
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      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "claude-haiku-5-5",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "0.0%",
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        "denominator": 1
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      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "claude-haiku-5-5",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "3.8893672",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "3.8893672",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate"
      },
      "observation_count": 1
    },
    {
      "model": "mistral-large-4",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "0.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
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      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "mistral-large-4",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "10.3779949",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "10.3779949",
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        "pricing_basis": "official_current_tariff_estimate"
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    },
    {
      "model": "mistral-medium-3-5",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
      "average_goal_achieved_percent": "0.0%",
      "quality_rate": {
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      "goal_rate": {
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      },
      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "mistral-medium-3-5",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "25.77",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "25.77",
        "incomplete_usage": true,
        "pricing_basis": "retained_tariff_estimate"
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      "observation_count": 2
    },
    {
      "model": "nvidia/NVIDIA-Nemotron-3.5-Lightning-30B-A3B-NVFP4",
      "average_quality_percent": "0.0%",
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      "average_full_run_estimate": {
        "model": "nvidia/NVIDIA-Nemotron-3.5-Lightning-30B-A3B-NVFP4",
        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.2283602",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "2.2550519",
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        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
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    {
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      "average_full_run_estimate": {
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        "mean_cost_low_usd": "0.25020603",
        "mean_cost_high_usd": "1.26602886",
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        "pricing_basis": "river_owner_cache_scenarios"
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  ],
  "selected_six_cost_provenance": {
    "packet": "SELECTED_SIX_COSTS_20261030.json",
    "sha256": "3a04d7ff6caf0edec3c6c71f37119b6f6bb9b1dd07b3a4ed029de47cc15683f9"
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    "conditions": "Heterogeneous runtime and evaluator versions and provider settings; historical grades unchanged. Technical and protocol exclusions are not quality failures. River recovery used serial pending cases. Descriptive comparison, not a controlled ranking.",
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "evaluator": "Compliance-0.3.0",
    "provenance": {
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